7/03/2008

Solar Energy is Great, Burning Food for Fuel is Stupid

Another pretty good book I have read recently is "Earth: The Sequel" by Fred Krupp.  A somewhat leftist treatise of many different alternative energy options that exist in the world and where they are in current development.  There are some exceedingly viable and attractive energy options out there that are just barely out of reach as far as commercial deployment cost.  One of my favorites that I think really needs some more attention is distributed solar panels, i.e. we all have solar panels on our roofs.  This really makes sense to me for several reasons:
  1. The "fuel" is free and won't diminish significantly for another 5 billion years, no matter how many people are using it, nor how much they use.
  2. Peak generation time is during sunlight hours, which just happens to be peak usage time as well.
  3. Terrorists (or natural disasters) will find it much harder to disable our power network if every building is a production unit.
  4. With the panels on the roof, they really make sort of a "shield" against the sun, so my house absorbs much less energy, and the energy need for cooling goes down.
  5. The roof is really useless real estate anyway, you can't use it for anything, if we can get something useful out of all that area, we may as well.
There are of course some drawbacks that need resolution:
  1. The cost of implementation is grotesque, a 30 year payoff is simply not viable in my opinion.  We need to get that down to a 5-10 year payoff and many more people in today's ever mobile society (moving from house to house, about every 6 years) will be willing to pay the cost and do it.
  2. The current "excess storage system" is that the excess power goes on the public grid and the power company pays you for it, thereby offsetting the cost of the power you use at night or during other non-generation times.  We need a long-term reliable local storage system.  Something like a bunch of batteries stored in the attic or buried in a vault near the house that does not require frequent access because they are some kind of maintenance free battery that can last through 12,000 cycles (30 years would be ~11,000 cycles).
  3. Even with great local storage, we still need the public grid.  Solar generation is just too finicky, unless some major efficiency advances are made to solar technology (I'm talking 85% or better energy conversion), we just cannot generate enough electricity to power everything, all day long.  It snows where I live, and the roof is completely covered for at least 4 months of the year.  If you think I'm going up there to scrape the snow off the panels after every storm like I do the driveway, yer crazy!
  4. We have to come up with a combination of materials that are plentiful and cheap to make the panels out of.  Once the above problems are resolved, millions of people will be flocking to the Solar Store to get their system.  We must take care that such a run on the materials will not impoverish some other industry or become self-defeating due to the high cost of the (now) rare and hard to obtain materials. 
A perfect current example of problem #4 is corn ethanol.  A commodity that was cheap and abundant, depleted by the overwhelming demand of energy production.  Furthermore, because of all the ridiculous subsidies on corn ethanol, corn is now a much more lucrative agricultural product, so farmers are planting fuel corn instead of animal feed corn, which drives up the cost of meat; planting fuel corn instead of human edible corn, driving up the cost of corn to eat; planting fuel corn instead of wheat, driving up the price of wheat and creating a worldwide shortage of the Staff of Life, which drives up the cost of nearly every other kind of food; planting fuel corn instead of following the scientific plan of crop rotation and letting land fallow, causing the land itself to become depleted.

One of the people interviewed for the book "Earth: The Sequel" was Bernie, who owns some kind of ranch getaway in Alaska, and is constantly searching for ways to make his ranch run on something other than the diesel generators that most out of the way places in Alaska run on.  He says it perfectly with respect to corn ethanol, here is a sound clip from the Recorded Books Audio version of the book:

http://www.advancemfgtech.com/burn_food_stupid.mp3

2 Comments:

At Fri Jul 04, 10:11:00 PM MDT, Blogger The Moderator said...

The energy from the sun is limited. Remember, the same sun that we're hoping will someday power our cars is the same sun that shines on us while we're lying by the pool. So it's not terribly intense, and we should be thankful!

A 100% efficient solar collector would collect about 125 watts per square foot in direct sunlight. It's not a lot, but it's nothing to sneeze at either.

The devil of the situation is that the sun moves throughout the day. (Fine, it's the earth that moves, but that's irrelevant.) Thus, the maximum solar radiation you can collect with a fixed position mirror in Salt Lake City is about 420 watts per square foot per day.

Assuming power costs $.12 per kwh, a square foot of surface in SLC is exposed to about $18.40 of power per year.

Unfortunately, solar equipment isn't 100% efficient. In fact, solar cells are only about 15% efficient, meaning if you see $18.40 worth of power, you can only expect to collect $2.76 per square foot. An installed PV solar system costs about $100 per square foot and, thus, has a payback of more than 35 years.

Curses! This will never do! Why hasn't something more efficient been invented? If you remember from your thermodynamics classes, your maximum theoretical efficiency can be computed by comparing the temperature on the hot side of the process, to the temperature on the cold side of the process. (The formula is 1 - ((Tl + 460) / (Th + 460)). We add 460 to get the absolute temperature.)

If the high temperature is 200 degrees, and the low temperature is 100 degrees, the max theoretical efficiency is 15%.

By using large parabolic mirrors to reflect and focus the suns rays on vacuum-enclosed surfaces, and using the generated heat to power a Stirling engine, you can achieve temperatures as high as 800 degrees and achieve efficiencies around 40-50%. Additionally, these can be set up to track the sun through the sky, increasing the available power from the 420 w/ft^2/day listed above.

The cost of the tracking machinery is expensive, so these systems need to be very large to offset the cost.

Long story short, solar power won't be much more efficient than it is today. The laws of thermodynamics, and the sun itself, limit the availability of solar power. This means that if solar power is ever to be a cost effective alternative to fossil fuels, we need to find a cheaper way of harnessing the energy. Cheaper construction is the key - not efficiency. We're already pushing the efficiency envelope.



Are there situations where solar power makes sense? Yes. Solar water heaters pay for themselves relatively quickly. Why? Because unlike the systems discussed above, we're not trying to generate power. The sun shines and heats the water. End of story.

Hospitals, hotels, barracks, and other buildings use enough water to give solar water heaters a relatively quick payback.

A solar water heater could also provide supplementary building heat in the winter months.



So there you have it. Solar power is abundant, but unless the sun shines more brightly, or an enterprising soul invents a cheaper method of harnessing its power, it will continue to tease and flirt with us, without ever delivering the goods.

 
At Sun Jul 06, 10:17:00 AM MDT, Blogger Anthony Barney said...

Fantastic! You are absolutely right about the problem being manufacturing costs. Some companies are working on it, like First Solar in Arizona: http://www.firstsolar.com/product_overview.php
The thin film technology is on the right track. Most homes have large enough rooftops to meet their own power requirements. In my opinion, the low temperature gradient is an advantage to standard solar cells, who wants an 800 degree firebrand on top of the house?

 

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